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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (August 21)


MARKET

Chinese equities benchmark index bounced for second day on Tuesday, after dipping below its 2016 low. Market heard that state-back funds stepped in for supporting market. Leisure and Food& Beverage sectors led the gains, while only Steel sector fell. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 280.6 bn, up 6.08% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2733.83

1.31

122.26

-17.34

Shenzhen

8549.06

1.60

158.59

-22.57

CSI 300

3326.65

1.82

97.93

-17.47

ChiNext

1456.97

1.48

51.65

-16.87

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Leisure

601888

Food& Beverage

603345

Downward-leading

Steel

000717

 

 

 

NEWS

*Another Loss-making Biotech Firm Files for Hong Kong IPO. Chinese biotech firm Ascentage Pharma Group International has applied for an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong, becoming the latest money-losing firm to go public after the local exchange eased listing rules for companies in the industry. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

 

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This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19880




Macro

Eurex: Trump Lashes Out


Morning Briefing August 21st 2018


The calendar starts in the UK at 0830GMT, with the release of the public sector finances data.

Previously, public sector net borrowing excluding banks was stg5.4 bn. Up next in the UK as well at 1000GMT is the CBI Industrial Trends survey. Back in July, the last order books balance reading was +11.0.

Across the Atlantic, the Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing index will be published at 1230GMT, with analysts looking for little change on the July reading of 44.3.

Also at 1230GMT is wholesale trade data in Canada.

After growing by 1.2% in the previous month, they are anticipated by analysts to fall to 1.0% this month.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


US TSYS: T-Notes stuck to a tight range overnight, after moving higher on Monday as the contract broke resistance levels & 30-Year yields moved back below 3.0%, with the belly of the curve outperforming. The space then legged higher on the back of chatter suggesting that U.S. Pres. Trump was unhappy with Fed MonPol under Powell i.e. less easy money, which was later confirmed. Trump noted that he disagrees with the Fed re: rate hikes & that he is "not thrilled" with Chair Powell. When asked if he believes that the Fed should be independent, he said he believes in "what's good for the country" adding "I should be given some help by the Fed." Trump also noted that he will criticise the Fed if it continues to raise rates. - Trump also highlighted that he doesn't "anticipate much" from China trade talks in Washington later this week and believes that there is "no time frame" for ending the trade dispute. Trump also had harsh words for Iran & Turkey. - The Eurodollar strip is virtually unchanged last, after some late block buying of front strips was observed on Monday.

JGBS: JGB futures trickled lower in the morning session, with little in the way of catalysts apparent, outside of a recovery in the Nikkei 225 from the early lows. - Longer dated swaps have edged lower from the off, with some suggesting this pointed to unwinding of foreign payer positions ahead of today's 20-Year JGB supply and month-end extensions. - JGB futures have had a limited reaction to the latest 20-Year auction. - Looking at the results of the supply, the low price came in higher than the exp. 98.00, as the bid to cover ratio edged higher, although the tail edged out to 0.3bp from 0.2bp at the previous auction.

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie Bonds have edged away from SYCOM closing levels, although they lagged Tsys on the latest move higher with the AU/U.S. 10-Year spread hovering around -30bp, while the domestic 3-/10-Year curve continues to flatten. - Bills last trade 1-3 ticks lower, with 3-Month BBSW fixing 0.3bp higher today. - The RBA minutes & comments Gov. Lowe offered little in the way of fresh material information.

STOCKS: It has been another mixed session for the major Asia-Pacific indices. - Onshore Chinese stocks have been the outperformer, with the CSI 300 adding 1.9%. The state owned Securities News has suggested that large state owned funds were actively purchasing billions worth of shares on Monday, which has supported the space today. - Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 finished the morning session a touch lower, recouping most of the early session losses, with health care names outperforming while consumer staples weighed. - The ASX 200 lost the best part of 1.0% as the heavyweight energy, materials and financial sectors all underperformed against a backdrop of political unrest & questionable earnings reports (including heavyweight BHP Billiton).

OIL: WTI & Brent consolidated Monday's gains overnight. - Oil managed to advance on Monday after coming under early pressure on the back of JODI estimates which pointed to an increase in Saudi crude exports during July. - Elsewhere reports suggested that the latest Genscape Cushing inventory estimates pointed to a build of ~520K bbls. - It also became apparent that the U.S. DOE has offered some 11mn bbls of sour crude from the U.S. reserves, although upon closer inspection this looks like a long-scheduled release (planned allocation) as opposed to an extraordinary measure.

FOREX: The early part of the session saw a fresh leg lower for the USD. No headline catalysts were observed & the move was likely follow through from U.S. Pres. Trump opposing the Fed's MonPol stance late Monday. This allowed USD/JPY to move to a low of Y109.78, while EUR/USD spiked higher through $1.1500 to a high of $1.1542 as EUR/GBP had a brief look above $0.9000 before easing. - The USD regained a degree of poise as the Nikkei recovered & USD/JPY ticked back above Y110.00, as the rate failed to consolidate below the 200-DMA for the time being. - The greenback failed to mount a notable recovery against the reminder of the majors. - The AUD/USD had little reaction to a leadership challenge for PM Turnbull, in which he was victorious. On the MonPol front RBA Gov. Lowe & the minutes from the RBA's most recent meeting held little in the way of fresh material information. AUD/USD operates around best levels, above the Aug 03 low ($0.7348), with bulls now looking to channel top resistance ($0.7453).

Technical Analysis


BUND TECHS: (U18) Higher Highs In Place

Yesterday's opening lows were recovered throughout the day to keep the bullish trend intact. A break above Friday's high of 163.88 would keep the focus on the May 29 high of 164.19, with little resistance beyond there until the measured move target at 167.00. Bears need to close below 163.42 to give them some breathing room and below the Aug 15 low at 163.10 shift the short-term focus lower and allow them to target the August 10 low at 162.69.

EUROSTOXX50: Downtrend Established

Yesterday's bounce improved the short-term outlook but bulls still need to regain the Aug 14 high of 3435.12 to make the bigger picture more constructive. Bears remain focused on the Aug 15 low, a break of which would likely see downside momentum gather pace. A further break below the 200-wma would open the way towards the March lows at 3261.86.

Eurex Exchange and MNI are both part of the Deutsche Börse Group

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MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19878




Futures

Blue Line Futures - FX Rundown


Euro (September)

Session close: Settled at 1.1490, up 22.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro gained for the fourth session in a row and is now 1.5% from the Wednesday low. While a stable-to-strong Eurozone CPI and a miss on U.S Michigan Consumer data late last week catered to the reversal, potentially averting a U.S and China trade war has done much of the heavy lifting. In Sunday’s Tradable Events this Week, we laid out the safe-haven flight to the U.S Dollar and what the exacerbated move means going forward. Kicking off the week, the German Bundesbank released their monthly report. After a stronger than expected Q2 GDP, they tempered expectations for Q3, saying the pace of expansion could cool. Later in the session, German Bundesbank President and potential replacement for the helm of the ECB next year, Jens Weidman, did not comment on monetary policy. However, President Trump did make strong comments today. He said he is not “thrilled” with Fed Chair Powell for raising rates and accused China and Europe for manipulating their currencies. These comments weighed on the Dollar as the session unfolded and continued to support the momentum shift in the Euro and other currencies paired against the Dollar.

Technicals: Friday’s strength stopped short of resistance at 1.1474-1.1484. A soft tape overnight gathered strength as the session unfolded and the Euro achieved a close above this resistance level today. However, after last week’s washout, it is certainly not in the clear and major three-star resistance sits overhead at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (September)

Session close: Settled at .90895, up 30.5

Fundamentals: The Yen advanced on Friday and followed with a strong session today as the Dollar softened from its melt-up. There is no data on the economic calendar through tomorrow. Our narrative has been that the Dollar stole the safe-haven spotlight, however, the Yen held ground through the turmoil in Turkey. The biggest boost for the currency has come from the slippage on U.S Treasury yields and now the Dollar has added wind to the sails. For us, this is much more technical, and we will discuss below.

Technicals: The Yen settled above first key resistance at .9042-.90685 for the first time since July 6th. Despite price action pushing this barrier on multiple occasions, a close above remained elusive until now. As long as it stays above here ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (September)

Session close: Settled at .7328, up 10 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie is paring a dismal month and though it is more than a penny from the low, it still has another penny to go. Commodity prices and emerging market fears are soothing as the Turkey noise has dissipated and U.S and China are taking positive steps. President Trump continues to play hardball, saying today that he does not think this round of talks with China will go anywhere. The most important part though would be delaying the implementation of the third round of tariffs due in a matter of weeks. On Friday, it was reported that they would lay the groundwork for resolving the trade dispute by November; if this seems obtainable, the Aussie should benefit. Minutes from the latest RBA Meeting are due at 8:30 pm CT.

Technicals: Price action is trading out above first key resistance which aligns with the breakdown point at .7315-.7329. Above here, the tape has a path of least resistance to ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (September)

Session close: Settled at .7665, up 0.5 a tick

Fundamentals: The Canadian has held ground in a very technical manner. While it did not get hit like other currencies against the Dollar, it has not benefited from the Dollar softening as others have over the last three sessions. Mexico and the U.S have reported progress on NAFTA, but a failure to hear the same for Canada has certainly held price action back. Wholesales data is tomorrow at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals: Last week’s low held perfectly against first key support which aligned multiple technical indicators as well as a trend line from the June 27th low. Our pivot at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19877




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (August 20)


MARKET

Chinese equities rose amid optimism the U.S. and China will be able to make progress on containing the trade war in meetings this week. Telecom and IT sectors led the gains, while Agriculture and Healthcare sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 264.5 bn, down 0.31% dod.

 

NEWS

* Beijing residential rents jump 25% in July. Monthly rent in Beijing has risen by about a quarter in 2018, according to a research report that has stoked criticism from many of the millions of tenants who live in China’s capital.A research report issued by property search engine Zhuge showed rental costs up 25.6 per cent year on year at the end of July, with some areas seeing a rise of nearly 40 per cent, says the report. (Financial Times)

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19875




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Soybean (ZS) Daily MACD Positively Crossing


Soybean (ZS) is rallying to start the week in today's Asia morning, and is testing triangle resistance (on the 4hr chart).  Significantly, ZS recovered last week downchannel resistance (on the daily chart), and is firming above downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart) after the prior week's healthy profittaking.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to go long in the green zone (of the daily chart) and am targeting the red zone for mid week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).
 
Soybean (CME ZS Nov18) Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on Wheat, Corn
 

As seen on Bloomberg, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 

19876




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