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Stocks

Edison - UK Sparks: RBS posts lower profit as Brexit uncertainty bites; sales climb at AstraZeneca


UK plc published a flurry of trading updates on Friday

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) reported a 16.5% fall in pre-tax operating profit in the first quarter to £1.01bn, after a £265m drop in income. RBS said costs were reduced by £45m in the three-month period. It reiterated its guidance on outlook, saying the ongoing impact from Brexit would likely make income growth more challenging in the near term. The bank’s CEO, Ross McEwan, resigned yesterday.

UK pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca said product sales growth of 10% helped its Q1 results. Sales for new medicines climbed 77% in the period, global oncology was up 54% and respiratory was up 9%. The company saw double-digit growth across all regions, with the exception of Europe which declined 12%. AstraZeneca also reiterated its 2019 guidance as long as the UK’s exit from the European Union “proceeds in an orderly manner,” it said.

Advertising company WPP’s trading update said revenue improved just 0.9% to £3.6bn in Q1, while like-for-like revenue fell 1.3% after “significant” clients losses in 2018. Despite the challenging year ahead, CEO Mark Read said WPP was making good progress in returning to sustainable growth. He said their newly formed agencies were showing initial signs of success. Earnings guidance for 2019 was unchanged.

Education company Pearson said underlying revenue increased 2% in Q1 and its operating performance was on track. The company reiterated its earnings guidance saying it expects to deliver adjusted operating profit of between £590m to £640m for 2019. Costs savings are also on track to exceed £330m by the end of the year. CEO John Fallon said he expects sales to stabilise and underlying profit to increase further.

Finally, Just Eat reported a 21% increase in group orders in Q1, which helped to lift revenue by 28% to £227.9m. Interim CEO Peter Duffy said that while order growth was softer in the UK, the company’s international markets were performing well.

- Sarah Jones

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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.  Visit www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com for more information.

Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Our research is a marketing communication as defined by the FCA, this communication only contains information that is an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under COBS2.3A19(5).

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Edison and is being posted with Edison’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Edison and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23717




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (April 26)


MARKET

Chinese stocks fell Friday as earnings season continued. Several previous star stocks lost their charms. The dollar steadied around a four-month high before the U.S. release on first-quarter economic growth. Telecom and IT sectors led the gains, while Agriculture and Power Equip. sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 622 billion, down 14.92% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3086.40

-1.20

274.78

23.76

Shenzhen

9780.82

-1.28

349.23

35.10

CSI 300

3889.27

-1.33

186.57

29.18

ChiNext

1657.82

-0.73

96.66

32.57

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Telecom

300292

IT

300202

Downward-leading

Agriculture

300313

Power Equip.

300091

 

NEWS   

*Yuan Rises as China Sets Strong Fix, Xi Vows No Harmful Weakness. China’s yuan climbed as the central bank set its daily reference rate at a stronger-than-expected level and President Xi Jinping pledged against currency depreciation that harms other nations. The onshore yuan rallied 0.16 percent to 6.7340 per dollar as of 11:52 a.m. in Shanghai, rebounding from the two-month low it hit Thursday. (Bloomberg)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23716




Macro

Eurex: Markets Quiet As Japan Awaits Long Holiday


Morning Briefing April 26th 2019

In Europe the release of consumer sentiment for France at 0745BST and CBI industrial trends for the UK at 1100BST will be closely watched. In the US the publication of GDP figures and the final Michigan Sentiment Index are the highlights of Friday.

France's consumer confidence index is expected to rise by one point to 97 in April after a modest increase in March to 96. March's reading was highest since August 2018, however consumer sentiment remains below the long-term series average.

March's figure for CBI industrial order books decreased to 1 after a sharp increase in February. Price intentions registered at 7 in March.

GDP in the US is expected to decelerate in Q1 to an annualized 2.0% after a growth rate of 2.2% in Q4 2018. GDP price index grew by 1.7% in the previous quarter and is expected to pick up to 1.8% in Q1.

The Michigan sentiment index is anticipated to increase modestly to 97.3 in April after registering at 96.9 in March.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

BOND SUMMARY: Tsys initially edged higher, as JPY strength set the tone ahead of the elongated Japanese holidays, before the JPY faded & TU/US block stepeeners were lodged, helping T-Notes off best levels. The flows likely helped to promote modest twist-steepening of the curve in the cash space. Elsewhere, White House economic advisor Kudlow told NewsMax that he thinks "the Fed is moving toward rate cuts." T-Notes last 123.14, U.S. 10-Year cash Tsy yields last 2.531%. - Aussie Bond futures blipped lower on the SFE re-open, but recovered, after following Tsys lower on SYCOM in the wake of the ANZAC Day holiday. YM last trades 1.0 tick lower, with XM -1.5 ticks. YM/XM trades at 53.5 ticks, with the cash equivalent at 49.0bp. Bills trade unchanged to 2 ticks lower through the reds. - JGB futures edged higher ahead of the Japanese holidays, last 9 ticks better off. Modest flattening crept into the cash space. Local data had little effect on the space and the BoJ left the size of its 5-10 Year purchases unch. - German FI futures traded in lacklustre fashion, and last sit virtually unchanged.

STOCKS: The major regional equity equities have generally struggled in Asia-Pacific hours, after Wall St. provided a mixed lead in the midst of U.S. earnings season. Tokyo equities struggled ahead of the elongated Japanese holiday period, with Chinese benchmarks continuing to edge away from the recent cycle highs. - Nikkei 225 -0.7%, Hang Seng +0.2%, CSI 300 -0.7%, ASX 200 -0.2%. - U.S. equity index futures trade a touch lower, with earnings season remaining in focus. - S&P 500 futures -4 points, DJIA futures -24 points, NASDAQ 100 futures -5 points.

OIL: WTI & Brent print $0.40 & $0.20 lower respectively. - Live Mint sources suggested that "China and India, the world's second and third largest oil importers, respectively, are nearing an arrangement to form a buyers' bloc to bargain collectively for oil supplies and reduce the influence of the Saudi Arabia-led cartel on oil prices." - Elsewhere, the WSJ noted that "the Trump administration's proposal to vastly expand offshore oil and gas drilling has been sidelined indefinitely as the Interior Department grapples with a recent court decision that blocks Arctic drilling, according to Interior Secretary David Bernhardt." - Crude settled lower on Thursday, with worry re: the impending ending of U.S. sanction waivers pertaining to the importing of Iranian crude intensifying. Thursday also saw loadings at Russia's Ust-Luga port halted owing to questions surrounding the quality of the product.

GOLD: Gold had added ~$4/oz in Asia-Pacific hours, initially benefitting from a combination of modest USD weakness and a slight pullback in U.S. Tsy yields, although the latter has now faded. Worry ahead of the elongated Japanese Golden Week holiday may have also added some support. Spot last trades at ~$1,281/oz. Yesterday's high of $1,282.66 provides the initial point of resistance.

FOREX: Yuan strengthened overnight, aided by comments from Chinese President Xi, who noted that China "will not pursue CNY depreciation that harms others," stressing that the country will "keep the yuan stable at its equilibrium level." Stronger than exp. yuan fixing by the PBOC also lent support. As a result, USD/CNH slid through CNH6.7500, moving away from yesterday's monthly high. - Yuan strength spilled over into the Antipodeans. NZD was the best G10 performer, as it had already been buoyant after RBNZ Gov Orr said that he is not "particularly worried" about slowing NZ economy. Nonetheless, Orr added that there is room to cut rates if required, which might have limited NZD's gains. Elsewhere, NZ trade surplus reached an eight-year high, printing at NZ$922mn. - JPY had outperformed initially ahead of the Golden Week holidays, with a soft start for the Nikkei 225 also providing support. However, the currency pared its earlier gains into the Tokyo fix, even as the Nikkei 225 remained in the red. Elsewhere, Japanese economic data sent mixed signals.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (M9) 166 REMAINS THE TARGET

Bund futures remain just below the key 166 level marking the April 3,10 highs with bulls looking for a close above here to open the March 28 highs at 166.75 ahead of the bull flag breakout target at 167.00. Bears focus remains on the April 17 low at 164.06. A close below here would bring the March 19 low at 163.63 into play ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 162.76.

EUROSTOXX50: Shrugging Off Peripheral Weakness

Eurostoxx edged back below the 3500 level yesterday but the correction remains shallow so far keeping the focus on the upside. Bulls look to take out Wednesday's high at 3515.15 to reignite upside momentum towards the July 31 high at 3536.87. Bears need to take out uptrend support from the Dec lows at 3422.00 ahead of the April 11 low at 3412.95. Below here would open the April 1 low at 3353.67 ahead of the key 200-dma support area.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23715




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Arabica Coffee (KC) Daily MACD Positively Crossing


Arabica Coffee (KC) rebounded more than 1% yesterday, closing at downchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart).  Significantly, KC's bounce this past week appears to be forming the 2nd data point of a support line within a downchannel (on the weekly chart).  KC is also a day's volatility away from testing downchannel/descending wedge resistance (on the daily chart).  Except for the weekly MACD which still slopes slightly down, the weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am flat after profitably closing longs yesterday and will look at re-entering long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for mid next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

 

Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Jul19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on Cotton, Natural Gas

 

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice


23714




Futures

FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures (04.25.19)


The first look at U.S Q1 GDP is due out tomorrow at 7:30 am CT. Let’s take a look at where currencies finished today, the data and the levels to know heading into the last day of the week. Covering the Dollar, Euro, Yen, Aussie and Canadian. 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23713




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